It’s a strange world we live in when the European winter enters into the minds of business planners on farm in Australia. Thankfully for Australian growers, the record warm winter experienced in Europe over the past few months has caused a significant relief in the price of fertilizer. As the war in Ukraine rages on and Western Europe weans itself off Russian energy, the mild weather largely blunted an otherwise catastrophic scenario.

Demand for LNG was expected to soar as the continent attempts to heat their homes during one of the most economically challenging periods in recent history. Natural gas is the feedstock for urea production, reduced domestic demand for heating freed up LNG supply for the fertilizer sector.

This is a small reprieve from the recent record prices for fertiliser which was exacerbated by the effecting market lockout of 25% of global nitrogen fertiliser supply (Russia). Couple this with the lingering supply chain challenges and the waves of COVID continuing to impact Mainland China, skyrocketing inflation figures, and a spike in the cost of living, the outlook for the global food supply particularly volatile.  

This volatility could spell the end of ‘cheap food’ according to a recent study from the University of Edinburgh in Nature Food. Rising food costs could lead to ‘up to 1 million additional deaths and 100 million more people undernourished’. Modelling indicates the combined effect of export restrictions, increased energy and fertiliser prices could cause food commodity prices to rise by 81% from 2021 levels. Unfortunately, the rising cost of food impacts hardest, those who can least afford it. Those on lower incomes are expected to further reduce the quality of their diets as healthy foods become unaffordable. Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East are likely to feel the impact worst. 

But the impact of high energy and fertiliser prices are likely to have a longer and more profound impact on our food systems. As fertiliser prices increase, farmers use less fertiliser, reducing crop yields, reducing supply, and further contributing to higher food prices.

Without fertiliser, more agricultural land is required, leading to more deforestation, higher carbon emissions and accelerated biodiversity loss. All of this against the backdrop of increasingly erratic weather systems and climate changes.

In his book Food or War, Australian science communicator Julian Cribb outlines a very clear and disturbing connection between food availability and international conflict. As we continue to come to terms with an era of high inflation, cost of living pressures, international conflagration and open war in Europe its clear that providing affordable nutrition for the world has never been more important.

As protected cropping growers, the importance of our industry is clear. Growing the scale of our protected food systems will help to solve some of the most pressing issues of our time. The challenge for our growers is to grow and market produce to support healthy diets in an increasingly volatile marketplace.